Posted on 9/12/2022 by Erik H. Reisner
School is back in session, the temperatures are dropping slightly, and the leaves are already starting to turn; all signs that autumn is coming soon. Will the real estate market have any seasonal changes? Historically, listings and sales slow as we get closer to winter. Only time will tell what will happen with these topsy turvy times.
Recreation and the forecast:
The Mad River Valley hosted the annual Green Mountain Stage Race over Labor Day weekend. This longtime staple event brings world-class cyclists, friends, and family to the Valley which is always a welcome sight for lodging and retail businesses. It’s also a reminder that autumn is upon us, and the next wave of tourists will be here shortly to enjoy the foliage season. With such dry conditions, it may be a short and less colorful display; but still worth the trip as it is truly one of the best times to visit Vermont and the Mad River Valley. After the leaves fall, the snow will follow suit. Will real estate sales also start to drop? Read on to find out…
Now onto the market update:
Currently there are 15 single family homes under contract or pending sale in the price range of $79,900 - $2,775,000 (down from 25 last month, and 17 two months ago), 7 condominiums under contract or pending sale priced from $32,000 - $699,900 (up from 6 last month, and down from 10 two months ago), 6 undeveloped land parcels under contract or pending sale from $250,000 - $950,000 (up from 5 last month, and down from 7 two months ago), and 1 commercial property under contract (zero last month, and zero two months ago)
Regarding the properties that are currently under contract or pending sale, 3 single family homes were listed after August 1st that are now pending, 3 condos came on the market after August 1st that are now pending. So we are seeing fewer properties listed over the past few months, and some of them are getting snatched up in a matter of days.
There were 8 single family home sales in June 2022 from $275,000 - $1,215,000 (8 sales in May as well). There were 12 condominium sales from $113,250 - $1,050,000 (down from 14 sales in May). There were 5 undeveloped land sale in June of 2022 from $44,000 - $890,000 (5 sales in May as well). There was 1 commercial sale in June 2022 (1 sale in May as well).
Our Take on the Central Vermont Real Estate Market:
As autumn approaches, we’re still seeing inventory trickling on here and there, but the supply continues to be way below the demand. Many buyers are frustrated after making offers on multiple properties only to be out-bid time after time. This has created a dual edged sword. Some buyers have simply given up, while others have decided to make even more aggressive offers. Our “typical” selling season starts to slow down in mid-to-late October. While we are nowhere near typical times, we think the market will slow down simply based on less inventory coming onto the market as we approach winter. So if you still are an active buyer, time is of the essence!
The current inventory in the Mad River Valley is down to 11 single family homes (12 this time last month), 7 whole-ownership condos (9 this time last month), and 10 undeveloped land parcels (10 this time last month too), and 3 commercial property (3 last month as well). That is 31 active listings across all sectors, down from 34 last month. In contrast, in the past calendar year there have been 81 single family home sales, 107 condo sales, and 51 land sales!
The leaves are indeed starting to fall, as are the number of new listings coming to market. We will likely see a little more inventory come on before the snow flies, but not enough to meet the ongoing demand. However, that demand may taper off as frustrated buyers are getting fatigued by getting priced out of the market coupled with a lack of desirable inventory. Historically our selling season slows significantly as we approach winter, and it appears that history will indeed repeat itself. So, if you are an active buyer; there will be less to choose from in the coming months. If you are a seller, there is still a small opportunity to catch lightning in a bottle, but don’t wait too long…
The current inventory in the Mad River Valley is “up” to 13 single family homes (11 this time last month), whole-ownership condos are down to 5 (7 this time last month), and 12 undeveloped land parcels (10 this time last month), and 3 commercial properties (3 last month as well). That is 34 active listings across all sectors, up from 33 last month. In contrast, in the past calendar year there have been 81 single family home sales, 102 condo sales, and 48 land sales!
Are you at all considering selling your Vermont property? If so, whether it’s a home, condo, land, or commercial property: WE WANT TO HEAR FROM YOU! What is your “Make Me Move price?” You very well may be able to achieve that dream or possibly more! SERIOUSLY, WE NEED TO TALK!
If you are a buyer actively searching in this ultra-competitive market, be sure to have your ducks in a row with your financing and down-payment. Or have some “creative” solutions to be able to waive a financing contingency. Also be sure to be connected with an agent who is ready, willing, and able to keep you in the loop as properties come to market. HINT, HINT, we’re really good at that!
Historical Mad River Valley Real Estate to June 30, 2022:
Below are two graphs that show the total number of units sold (single family homes, condominiums, commercial properties, undeveloped land), as well as the total dollar volume through June 30, 2022.
This blog post will be updated on a monthly basis to track year-to-date real estate sales in the Mad River Valley. The data is gathered from the State Property Tax Transfer records and includes all sales above $20,000. Vermont Property Transfer Tax data is typically +/- 3 months behind as it takes time for all the towns to file the returns with the State. Therefore, we are reporting here on accurate sales data from 3-months prior.
Whether you are a potential buyer or seller, this data is a valuable resource to help you make informed real estate and financial decisions.
If you have any questions about these graphs, or anything real estate related, give Mad River Valley Real Estate a call or send us an email.